Media
Selected national and international coverage of our group’s COVID-19 modelling and forecasting work. The list is not exhaustive.
International Media
- Washington Post: The pandemic is out of control in India. These quick interventions would help.
- WebMD: Could It Happen Here? India’s COVID Situation Worsening.
- Medscape: India’s Dire COVID-19 Situation Likely to Worsen. Could It Happen Here?
- News-Medical: Researchers characterize India’s devastating second wave of COVID-19.
Indian Media
- Times of India: ‘Mass vaccination, adherence to Covid norms can blunt third wave’
- The Hindu (BusinessLine): Second wave to peak around mid-May
- CNBC TV18: India’s 2nd COVID wave likely to peak in mid-May
- Mint: Second wave may peak in May, say IIT Kanpur scientists
- Mint: Exponential growth in COVID cases in coming months
- The Print: 3 likely scenarios for the third-wave peak
- News9: Mathematical model predicts a third wave in October
- Dainik Bhaskar: अब IIT कानपुर ने कहा- नहीं आएगी थर्ड वेव
- Dainik Bhaskar: Third-wave peak pushed to November
- etv Bharat: India’s COVID havoc to peak mid-May
- The English Post: Alarming second wave of COVID-19 in India
- News18 (Hindi): Coronavirus to spread rapidly in the second wave
- Dainik Jagran: Second wave deadlier than before
- Dainik Jagran: Research on COVID-19 cases in India
- Patrika: Second wave found to be dangerous in IIT research
- Patrika: New wave more dangerous than before
- Navbharat Times: More than one lakh daily cases warned
- Navbharat Times: Warning about the second wave
COVID-19 Research Impact
- Foremost & accurate predictions of the second wave in India. The World Health Organization (WHO) cited our research in its COVID-19 weekly epidemiological update (27 April 2021) — WHO report.
- Third-wave preparedness inputs. The National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), MHA accelerated third-wave preparation based on our study — NIDM report (PDF).
- First-wave study widely cited. “Predictions for COVID-19 outbreak in India using epidemiological models” — Google Scholar.
COVID-19 Models
Improved SIR Model
The classical SIR (Susceptible–Infected–Removed) model, adapted for the Indian COVID-19 scenario with only two parameters — infection rate and recovery rate — estimated from best fit to infection/recovery data. Data-driven improvements predict the epidemic’s decline from available recovery-rate data.
Vaccine Efficacy Model
A Monte-Carlo simulation-based model to estimate vaccine efficacy against a given coronavirus strain from vaccination, infection, hospitalization and death data — usable to gauge the intensity of future outbreaks.
Excess Mortality Model
A robust excess-mortality model based on principal component analysis (PCA) that provides reasonable estimates of actual COVID-19 impact for India and other regions, addressing the large uncertainty in expected-mortality estimation.